The Middle East War’s Shadow on India’s Farms and Food Security

PARTHA ROY, KOLKATA: The escalating US-Israel-Iran conflict, which has effectively disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz since early March 2026, has sent shockwaves through global fertilizer markets. India, the world’s second-largest fertilizer consumer, sources over 40% of its urea and a significant share of phosphatic fertilizers (DAP and NPK) from Gulf nations such as Oman, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, and Bahrain—accounting for nearly 70% of urea imports in recent years. With roughly one-third of global fertilizer trade routed through the Hormuz chokepoint, exports have plummeted. Urea prices have surged 30-40%, jumping from under $500 to over $700 per tonne, while freight costs on India-Middle East routes have skyrocketed by more than 1,000%.

Domestically, over half of India’s natural gas imports (key feedstock for urea) and 80% of ammonia come from the region. Gas rationing has prioritised city supplies, slashing fertilizer plant output by an estimated 800,000 tonnes monthly. Several plants have shut or curtailed production just ahead of the kharif planting season. India holds buffer stocks covering 1.8 months of urea and longer for DAP, but prolonged disruptions threaten shortfalls. The government is scrambling for alternatives from Russia, Morocco, Belarus, and even seeking eased Chinese exports, yet higher costs and logistics delays loom.

Agricultural production faces direct hits. Fertilizer accounts for 20-25% of farming costs; reduced application or pricier inputs will lower yields of rice, wheat, pulses, and oilseeds—crops vital for India’s 1.4 billion people. Food security is at risk, especially for low-income households. While public distribution systems and reserves provide short-term cushioning, sustained price pressure could exacerbate malnutrition and poverty.

Edible agricultural products are already showing volatility. Food inflation, which had eased, is rebounding as input costs climb. Retail prices of staples like rice, wheat, and vegetables are expected to rise 10-15% or more if shortages materialise, fuelling broader inflation.

The conflict also strains India’s role as a food-aid provider to neighbours. Annual rice and wheat shipments to Bangladesh, Nepal, Sri Lanka, and Afghanistan—often under government-to-government deals—could shrink or become costlier. Export disruptions to West Asia (valued at $11.8 billion in agri-goods) compound the issue, hitting farmers’ incomes while aid budgets face upward pressure.

Beyond farms, essential commodities feel the pinch: surging crude oil (pushing past $100 per barrel) inflates transport, diesel, and cooking gas prices, cascading into higher costs for everything from milk to medicines. Economists warn of a potential 1-2% GDP drag if the war drags on.

India’s response—diversifying suppliers and boosting domestic production—offers resilience, but swift diplomatic and policy measures are critical to shield farmers, stabilise prices, and safeguard food security in the world’s largest democracy. The war in the Gulf is no longer distant; it is reshaping dinner plates across India.